The impact of remittances on Tunisian economic growth: an ARDL analysis

Abstract

This article examines the impact of remittances on Tunisian economic growth. To carry out this research, the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used over a period from 1982 to 2022 to enable us to examine the short- and long-term links between the variables. Results indicate that remittances have a negative impact on the economy of Tunisia in the short term. However, in the long term, remittances have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, remittances and Tunisian economic growth have a unidirectional causal relationship. Therefore, the short-term negative impact is smaller than the long-term positive contribution. A 1% increase in migratory funds results in a 4.43% acquire in GDP per capita over the long term and a 2.25% decrease in the short term. The study provides contributions to academic research, deepening the understanding of remittance mechanisms in Tunisia. In this way, it supports strategic decision-making aimed at promoting inclusive economic development.